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DECISION TREE
It can be defined as a schematic tree-shaped diagram that is used to determine a course of action or show a statistical probability where each branch of the decision tree represents a possible decision or occurrence.
This is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like diagram or causal model of decisions and their possible consequences. This includes probability event outcomes and resource costs as well as utility and this is one way to display an algorithm.
It is commonly used in operations research specifically in decision analysis and to identify a strategy most likely to reach the objective. It has only burst nodes but no sink nodes and it is used manually which can grow very big and are then often hard to draw fully by hand.
Earlier these have been created manually, but now it can also be created with specialized software. These are drawn using flow charts symbols. By drawing like this it is easier for many to read as well as understand.
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It has several advantages as it is simple to understand as well as interpret; people are able to understand these models after a brief explanation. It can have value even with little hard data and at the same time, important insights can be generated based on experts describing a situation.
Its alternatives and probabilities, as well as costs and their preferences, can be the outcomes. It is also possible to add possible scenarios. Worst and best, as well as expected values, can be determined for different scenarios.
It makes use of white box model if a given result is provided by a model. It can be combined with other decision techniques and the following example uses Net Present Value calculations such as PERT 3-point estimations as well as a linear distribution of expected outcomes
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Disadvantages of these are for data including categorical variables with a different number of levels, the information gain in it is biased in favor of those attributes with more levels.
This results in the complexity, particularly of the calculations. This is because many values are uncertain and at the same time many outcomes are linked.
